I didn't do a good job of hanging on to the old ToTY 1 - buying Biotech vol - the index *did* get clobbered, but as the market hit a low on Jan 22nd, I unwound all long vol positions, except for my ToTY - Sugar.
Well, I still need a ToTY 1, and I found it today - but it's off the beaten track, and not too liquid either. Drumroll.....
Buying vol in Live Cattle.
I expect a large move in Live Cattle. Commercials are long, and speculators are short, so I would have thought that it would be to the upside. But, the positions are not at an extreme, so I do not have a strong feel for which direction the move will be in.
A delta neutral strangle, June maturity, seems to make the most sense at this point to me. Let's see how it goes.
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